George Has Problems with My Predictions, Too
The fly in the ointment regarding impeachment is Trump’s approval rating among Republican voters. Although his overall approval rating has been hovering between 37% and about 40%, approval among Republican votes has been fairly steady at 84% to 85%.
It is unlikely that House Republicans would go anywhere near an impeachment vote UNLESS:
- This percentage drops markedly at least to 60% -65% and it may even have to go lower than that to scare them into action. They will be very cautious about riling those who vote for them.
- They also could be spurred to action if polls going into the 2018 election show that they will take a beating in the Senate or House or both and that voter sentiment was strongly in favor of impeaching the Orange Ass.
This said, my suspicion is that Pence is too politically savvy to have done anything that could enmesh him in Trump’s troubles. I see Pence as keeping his distance but, at the same time, trying to look loyal to Trump so as to stay in the good graces of the Republican base. He is dreaming about 2020.
However, he will not emerge clean. So much do-do will be flying around that he too will be sullied. Also if the Dems take control of either or both the House and Senate in 2016 and Donald is ousted, Pence will not only be sullied but he will not be able to pass a thing. Even if Trump is not dumped, the GOP will be looking for a candidate far removed from the vile smell of Trump and who can reclaim independents who have been moving toward the Dems at a goodly pace.
Rubio thinks he is Mr. 2020 but keep your eye on a host of others, including Jeb Bush and John Kasich. The addition of Cruz and Paul, which is not far fetched, would make 2020 another GOP free-for-all.