Consult’s 5/27-6/2 weighted online poll of almost 17,000 registered voters who are likely to vote in the Democratic Primary remains much like their earlier polls.¹ Among all likely Dem primary voters:

Biden                   38%

Sanders              19%

Warren               10% (was 9%, first time in double digits)

Harris                  7%

Buttigieg             7%

O’Rourke            4%

Booker                3%

Every other announced candidate was at or below 1%

But another option did stand out:  2% wanted Someone Else, whom I know well and like a good bit.

The results are basically the same for potential primary voters in the early primary states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada).  One major difference is that in the early primary states Senator Klobuchar gets into what might be called the third tier of candidates with 4%. Seems that her focus on early states is paying off, a least a bit.

Biden                   40%

Sanders              18%

Warren               10% (was 9%, first time in double digits)

Harris                  6%

Buttigieg             6%

Klobuchar          4%

O’Rourke            3%

Booker                3%

Every other announced candidate was at or below 1%

But another option stood out again:  3% wanted Someone Else, which also places her/him in the third tier.

Warren’s appeal is strongest (her supporters vs. all other potential primary voters) among younger voters, women, those who identify Women’s Issues are their primary issue—22% for her supporters vs. 13% for others. Her voters are somewhat less concerned than others about the economy (16% vs. 21%) and senior’s issues (12% to 18%). But her support Black voters is only 11% vs. 84% Whites.  That doesn’t bode tooo well for her in SC primary.

But, in early May, Women’s Issues were the top issue for only 6% of likely primary voters.  By June 2^nd, that percentage had risen to 14%. Given the actions pending in several states, I expect that percentage to increase over the next few months. Warren should benefit from that.

The only issues that top Women’s Issues among primary voters in May/June 2019 are Economic Issues, Senior Issues, and Health Care Issues. Each of these issues largely trucks along at between 18-22 percent.

Energy, Education and Security roll along between 6-8%.

Name recognition and favorability still vary widely among the horde of Democratic candidates. The only candidates topping 50% favorability are Biden (77%), Sanders (73%), Warren (58%), and Harris (51%). Biden and Sanders have only 7-8% who have heard of them but have no opinion; for Warren and Harris , it is about 20%.

Of course, it is June 2019; it is not June 2020.  But, watch the early primaries.  An analysis by 538 of polling in the year prior to the election showed that anyone who polls 35%+ wins the nomination between 75-85% of the time.² Good news for Joe Biden? There is “no tellin’.”  All the previous races that generated these estimates didn’t have over 20 candidates on the ballot.  That reality makes the 35%+ seem like a pipe dream.

1. https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Political-Intelligence-6.3.19.pdf

2. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-analyzed-40-years-of-primary-polls-even-early-on-theyre-fairly-predictive/