Support Among All Potential Primary Voters in Democratic Primaries

The Democratic candidates seems to line up as a 4 plus a few.  For all likely Dem primary voters, Biden holds at 33%; Sanders receives 19%; Warren and Harris receive 14% and 13%, respectively. The next tier of candidates are Buttigieg (5%), O’Rourke (3%), Booker (2%), and Yang (2%).  After those eight, it is l% or less for all others.

Support Among All Potential Primary Voters in Early Democratic Primaries

For early primary voters (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada), Biden is again at 33%; Sanders has 21%; Harris and Warren both come in at 11%; Buttigieg has 6% and Booker has 3%.

Points of Interest

I think a couple of things are interesting.  First, Andrew Yang, for a non-politician running almost solely on a universal income program, Yang get 2%, while 38% of primary voters have never heard of him and 26% have heard of him, but they have no opinion. For his partners in crime Booker, Buttigieg, and O’Rourke (those polling at a similar level) their “Never heard of him” respondents range from only 16%-20%. Second, both Yang and O’Rourke fall off the bus (<2%) with likely primary voters in the early primary states.

Sources of Support for Leading Candidates Among Various Demographic Groups

The sources of support for each candidate are interesting. The survey provided information on “among X’s voters, what percentage are Y?”.  As one would expect, with potential primary voters, 64% of Sanders supporters are <45, and a whopping 72% of Biden voters are 45+. A majority of Warren (59%) and Harris (54%) voters are also 45+. A bit surprisingly 67% of Kamala Harris supporters are 45+. Elizabeth Warren supporters are 84% white. Roughly two-thirds of Biden and Sanders supporters have no college education, while the majority of Warren and Harris supports are college educated.