George Thinks That DJT Won’t Last
For those of you who followed “Two Guys” in the run up to the election will remember my friend, George. He has decided that I am wrong about how long we will have to deal with DJT. I hope he is right, but I still think we are stuck for the full term. (Though I desperately hope George is right, until I think of President Pence.)
It is rare for me to disagree with Charles, but I have long believed that Trump will not survive a full term.
He and his family members and close advisors are amateurs at international intrigue who are being hunted by determined professionals. At first this was the FBI and the intelligence agencies. Then they were joined by Congressional investigating committees. These are arguably sideshows, but the Special Counsel, Robert Mueller, and the highly expert and experienced staff that he has assembled are far from inconsequential.
I long have thought that one or more three things would bring down Trump and his key family members and close advisors.
At the top of my list was money laundering. I was awakenied to this spectre over a year ago by a WSJ article on the murky sources of loans to Trump. A little bit of additional research and reading convinced me that money laundering was a distinct possibility. The involvement of Duetsche Bank and the Bank of Cyrpus were red flags. Both are reported to be major conduits for laundering Russian money.
More recently there was an April 26, 2017 Mother Jones article that I commend to you: “Do Trump’s Murky Ties to Russia Connect to Money Laundering.”
Money laundering for Russian oligarchs well could be kompromat held by the Kremlin that would explains so much of Trump’s actions that are beneficial to Russia, his refusal to condemn Russian actions, and his kind words about Putin.
Putin also might have the kompromat suggested in the dossier prepared by the ex-MI6 intelligence agent. The dossier suggests the possibility of tapes from a Russian hotel room that show Trump having Russian prostitutes urinate on a bed in which Barak and Michelle Obama slept (aka, the peepee tapes).
Of these two, I had thought that money laundering would much more likely be the cause of Trump’s downfall. It is much easier to unravel money laundering than to get one’s hands on a tape held by the Kremlin.
Impeachment is the third possibility for an early end to Trump’s days in the White House. Today’s release of Donald Trump Jr’s emails may make this more likely but I still think that it is a lower probability. The reason is that the current words and actions of the large majority of Republican lawmakers indicate that they would be highly resistant to initiating impeachment proceedings. I don’t see modern day counterparts to Howard Baker and Sam Ervin, Republicans of high integrity who spurred the proceedings against Nixon.
What could push impeachment over the edge is a specific blunder by Trump — pardons. If his son-in-law or one or more of his children were convicted of violations associated with the campaign and his election, Trump’s supreme arrogance is very likely to lead him to pardoning them. That outrage most likely would push GOP lawmakers over the edge regarding impeachment.
Also, to ensure the silence of others who might be convicted, I would not put it past Trump to have promised them pardons instead of piles of money upon their release.
In my view, the probability is substantial that one of these three possibilities brings down the Donald.
My most ardent wish is that the investigations and the drip, drip of incriminating information continues into the 2018 elections.